Welcome to our community!

We're the Greenhaus Community - a residential community in Newtown, Wellington. We used to live in a large house built in 1906, with lots of friends living near by. In February 2016, nearly all of us moved out of the big haus and we handed it over to our friends the INK Community. Now we live somewhere nearby in a multitude of different houses connected to one another.

We were first established some time around 1999 (check out our alumni list here). You can contact us at greenhausnz at gmail dot com.

July 6, 2015

Greek crisis: 3 ways out and 3 causes

Here's my personal view and analysis on the unfolding Greek financial crisis, written before the recent Greek referendum on their way out of the crisis.  

3 ways out:

  1. Halt austerity:  Austerity hasn’t worked and shouldn't be extended.  Austerity has weakened Greece’s ability to repay its loans, since it has contributed to GDP falling by 25% and unemployment rising to 25%. The medicine has made the patient more sick. 
  2. Restructure the debt so Greece can grow its economy:  Greece can't repay its current debts and should be allowed to restructure them so that it can grow its economy and repay them in the future.  Restructuring Greece's debts could involve giving them more time, waiving interest rates, or reducing the amount of the loan.  Restructuring the debts gives Greece time to reform its corrupt and inefficient economy. 
  3. Vote 'no' on Sunday:  Greek citizens should vote ‘no’ on Sunday.  Voting 'yes' means Greece signing up for loans it can't repay and the crisis dragging on for years to come.  Voting 'no' is the only way Greece has a hope to restructure its loans and grow its way out of the crisis.


3 causes:

  1. Both Greece and the EU contributed to growing debt before the GFC:  Prior to the GFC, Greek debt got out of control due to reckless government spending, poor tax collection, and an unproductive and corrupt economy.  Being part of the EU encouraged larger debts since with the Euro, Greece's interest rates are lower (encouraging more debt) and its exchange rate is stronger (making its exports less competitive). 
  2. The post-GFC bailouts were flawed:  After the GFC, the troika (IMF, European Central Bank, European Commission) gave large bailouts and required Greece to commit to deep austerity and reforms.  The bailouts were largely driven by Germany’s desire to protect its investments in Greek debt.  Austerity has harmed the economy and the reforms undertaken by previous Greek governments haven’t tackled the biggest curruption and inefficiency in the Greek economy.
  3. The current Greek government is on the right track:  Since being elected at the beginning of the year, the current Greek government wants to implement meaningful reforms and restructure its debts.  However, without restructuring the debt, the pressure every few months of repaying its debts makes it extremely challenging for the Greek government to implement effective reforms to its economy. 


Here’s an article showing some well respected economists views on the crisis:  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/07/02/greece-austerity-economists_n_7714148.html

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